Bad Bets
✨ NEW Parlay Concierge · Push alerts · Real-time trades & signings

Where the market
and the math
disagree.

Bad Bets runs a math model on every game and surfaces the bets where the sportsbook line is off. Every pick goes public. Every result gets graded. It's all free — no upsell, no Discord paywall.

See tonight's picks → What's new
1

We crunch the numbers

Every morning at 6 AM, our model rates every MLB, NFL, NBA, and CFB game using pitcher form, bullpen rest, weather, park factors, umpire bias, and a dozen other signals.

2

We flag the mispriced games

When our model strongly disagrees with the sportsbook's line — say, we think a team should be favored but the book has them as the dog — that's an edge. We publish it.

3

You decide if you want in

Free picks every morning on the site, Telegram, and Discord. We don't take bets — you bet wherever you already do. Every result gets graded publicly so you can see if we're actually beating the books or just lucky.

See tonight's picks → View our track record

🔥 What's new Built for bettors, not readers.

While ESPN buries the bet in 800 words of quotes, Bad Bets ships tools that tell you what to do about tonight's slate.

NEW 🎯
Live shot chart on WNBA + NBA games Real-time full-court map with every shot as it happens. Green for makes, red for misses, team-colored. Momentum bar tracks scoring runs like "LV on a 9-0 run". Nobody else has this.
NEW 🧠
Bad Bets Read — the "why" behind the pick Every basketball card shows projected score, the pick + edge %, model vs market probability grid, and 3 reasons in plain English (offensive advantage, home court, form, model-market gap).
NEW 📡
Cross-sport Live Now strip See every live game across every sport in one horizontal strip on the hub + today's picks — MLB, WNBA, Summer League, NBA, NFL, CFB. Team logos, live score, click through to the breakdown.
NEW 🗳️
Multi-sport Pick'em Pick winners on every sport we track — MLB, WNBA, Summer League, NFL, NBA, CFB — from one page. Vote counts, locked-at-tip, community leaderboards.
NEW 🏀
WNBA + Summer League scoreboards Every WNBA game with live scores, line score, ML/spread/total, model edge, shot chart. Plus the full Vegas / California / Salt Lake Summer League. Real logos, editorial cards.
NEW 🧠
Parlay Concierge Wizard asks what you want — safe locks / best edge / moonshot / totals only — and builds it. Live odds + expected-edge math.
NEW 📊
O/U + Run Line probs on every card Every MLB card shows the model's over/under and run-line probability, with edge % vs. the sportsbook. Powered by Poisson + Skellam math.
NEW 🔔
Breaking news alerts Follow a player or team, get pinged the moment news drops. Web Push works on iOS + Android + desktop. No app required.
NEW 🔥
Live Trades & Signings feed Every trade, signing, injury, cut — categorized in real-time. Woj tweets a trade at 6pm, you see it here by 6:05.
NEW 📈
Line-move overlay on news "Line moved 2.5 pts since this story dropped." Every headline tells you if you can still get the good number — or if you're too late.
NEW 👥
Community pulse on every game See what % of public bettors took each side + the recent bettors. Copy their picks, bet the other side, or just watch.
🏆
Public track record Every pick published before first pitch. Every result graded by morning. No cherry-picking, no deleted losers.
⚡
Live win-probability tracker Every game, score + real-time win % + projection pace. Watch a lock swing 20% in one at-bat.
NEW 🎨
Full profile customization Betting-style tag (Locks Only / Fade Merchant / Parlay Guy), custom tagline, signature emoji, accent color, pinned pick, featured badges.
📱
Install as an app Add Bad Bets to your home screen — iOS + Android + desktop. Works offline, push notifications, no store required.
📢
Free morning drop on Telegram Today's picks straight to Telegram, no signup — @badbetsdaily

Not another ESPN.

ESPN tells you what happened. Bad Bets tells you what to do about it.

ESPN & friends
  • ✕ Same homepage for everyone
  • ✕ Trade news → maybe a headline, no line context
  • ✕ Analyst picks with no track record
  • ✕ Score + game log. No projection, no probability.
  • ✕ Notifications for anything and everything
  • ✕ "Sign up for our expert picks — $49/mo"
Bad Bets
  • ✓ Personalized feed of your teams & players
  • ✓ Every story shows if the line already moved
  • ✓ Every pick has a public record. No hiding losers.
  • ✓ Model projection + O/U probability + edge on every game
  • ✓ Push alerts only for players & teams you follow
  • ✓ All of it, free. Forever.
See tonight's picks → Sign up (free)
NFL
Kickoff in … · fantasy leagues open now · picks at Week 1
NFL hub Start a league
Live now
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MLB
Tonight
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MLB games
Today's locks
—
our biggest disagreements with Vegas
NFL kickoff
—
until Week 1
This week Full schedule →
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The hub live now

What's happening right this second — games in progress with our pick highlighted, today's most-tailed picks across the community, and news stories that actually move betting lines.

MLB · happening now Live board →
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🔥 Trending picks 24h
📰 News
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Recent chatter community

What other Bad Bets users are saying about today's slate. Join the conversation or just lurk — both are fine.

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The receipts MLB · 2026

How the model is actually doing this season — hit rate, average edge, best and worst stretches. No cherry-picking, no curated screenshots.

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Today's top MLB edges

The four games where our model disagrees most with the sportsbook tonight. Tap any card to see why we like it, who's pitching, and the price across 20+ books.
"Edge" = how mispriced we think the line is. +5% edge means we think that bet is worth 5 cents on every dollar wagered.

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See all today's picks →

Recent MLB results

Yesterday's and the last few days' picks, graded. Green means we cashed, red means we missed. Every result, no hiding the losses.

DateMatchupEdgeDirFinalOutcome
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See full ledger →

Explore by sport live across MLB / WNBA / SL / NBA / NFL / CFB

Bad Bets covers six sports, each with its own model. MLB, WNBA, and NBA Summer League are fully live right now. NBA, NFL, and CFB launch in full with their seasons.

MLB LIVE · v0.8

⚾ MLB picks + props

Daily moneyline edges with momentum, bullpen fatigue, umpire signals. Player props on HR, hits, K's.

Today →LivePropsLedger
WNBA LIVE · v0.1

🏀 WNBA scoreboard + picks

Live shot charts, projected scores, ML / spread / total all bettable. Bayesian pace + net-rating model on every game.

Scoreboard →PropsTrack recordStats
SL LIVE · July

☀️ NBA Summer League

Vegas + California + Salt Lake City in one page. Live scoreboards, shot charts, and every game addable to your slip.

Live now →OddsBad Bets ReadSchedule
NFL Beta · v0.2

🏈 NFL picks + props

QB-EPA + line movement game model. Player props (passing/rushing/receiving) launching Week 1, September 2026.

Hub →TodayProps previewLeagues
NBA Beta · v0.1

🏀 NBA picks + props

Pace-adjusted ratings with star availability layer. Player props (PTS/REB/AST/3PM) live opening night 2026-27.

Hub →TodayProps previewStats
CFB Beta · v0.1

🎓 CFB picks + props

SP+ blend with portal-transfer + continuity adjustments. Player props launching Week 1, September 2026.

Hub →TodayPortalProps preview
FREE

💬 Join the Discord

Daily morning slate drop, the model's top picks, and live community reactions while games go. No paywall, no upsell — just a place to hang out and watch the bets play out.

Join the Discord →
PWA

📱 Install the app

Bad Bets as a real phone app via Add to Home Screen. Works offline for tickets + ledger. Push notifications for slate drops + cashed picks. iOS · Android · Desktop — same install in 30 seconds.

Install Bad Bets →