NFL Today this week's edge picks · spreads + totals
NFL picks publish at Week 1 kickoff.
Bad Bets NFL edge model v0.2 (Elo + QB EPA layer). 2024 backtest: 55.2% ATS on spreads (+5.4% ROI) · 58.9% moneyline (+6.4% ROI) · Brier 0.209. Weekly picks publish every Tuesday morning once Week 1 lands Sept 4.
Bad Bets NFL edge model v0.2 (Elo + QB EPA layer). 2024 backtest: 55.2% ATS on spreads (+5.4% ROI) · 58.9% moneyline (+6.4% ROI) · Brier 0.209. Weekly picks publish every Tuesday morning once Week 1 lands Sept 4.
What this page will show
- Each game on the week's slate (TNF / Sunday early / late / SNF / MNF)
- Bad Bets model's win probability + recommended side (spread or moneyline)
- Total (over/under) edge when present
- AGREE / FLIP direction tag vs Vegas consensus
- Lock / Strong / Solid / Lean tier based on edge magnitude
- Weather, key injuries, line movement context