WNBA Player Props Points · Rebounds · Assists · 3-Pointers · Doubles
Usage-rate × possessions × scoring efficiency. We model each player's per-game rate using usage share, pace, opponent defense, and minutes projection — then run the Poisson over/under math on every line. Model calibrating on the current WNBA season. Edges publish once we hit sample-size threshold (~15 games per team).
Points
Usage rate × team possessions × true-shooting % × matchup DRtg. Minutes-projected from rotation patterns.
Rebounds
Rebound rate × team pace × opponent miss rate (slow-pace games suppress rebound totals).
Assists
Usage-share × team eFG% × pace. Assists scale with teammates making shots — bad shooting nights bury PG assist props.
3-Pointers Made
3PA × season 3P% with heavy Bayesian shrinkage. Volatile market — we publish smaller edges with bigger confidence bands.
Double-Doubles
Joint Poisson on points + rebounds (or points + assists for guards). Often the softest market on a board.
PRA Combos
Points + Rebounds + Assists totals. Sum-of-three Poisson; great for star players against pace-up matchups.
• Now: Calibrating on live WNBA games — model is running silently
• Once threshold hit: Public launch of 5 markets · live edges on every card
• After launch: PRA combos + cross-market parlay engine · joint-Poisson for star players
• Playoffs: Postseason edges + MVP / ROY / Coach of the Year futures