WNBA Team Stats PPG ยท DPG allowed ยท Pace ยท Rebounds ยท 3PT rate
These are the inputs powering the Bad Bets WNBA edge model. Every projection on the scoreboard starts here. Team-level offense, defense, pace, and shot selection โ updated after every game via ESPN's public API.
Team PPG
Season points per game. Leading input for the projected total on every game card.
PPG allowed
Defensive rating in disguise. Feeds the "opponent defense" blend in each team's projected points.
Pace
Possessions per 48. High-pace matchups pump totals; slow-pace suppresses them. Applied to both teams.
3PT volume + %
Attempts and make rate. Heavy-3PT offenses have wider variance โ model widens spread confidence bands accordingly.
Rebound rate
Offensive + defensive rebound %. Rebounding advantage drives possession count โ a subtle multiplier on projected total.
Home / road splits
Home teams score ~2.4 more per game in the WNBA. Baked into the projection alongside a pace adjustment.
โข Away pts projected: (away PPG + home DPG allowed) / 2 ร pace factor
โข Home pts projected: (home PPG + away DPG allowed) / 2 ร pace + 2.4 HFA
โข Projected total: sum of both. Normal CDF around this gives O/U probability.
โข Spread edge: projected margin vs market spread, ฯ โ 9.5 pts