NFL Player Props Passing yards · Rushing yards · Receiving yards · Anytime TD
Same Poisson-rate framework that powers our MLB props, retuned for football. We model each player's per-game rate using usage share, matchup difficulty, pace, and weather, then compute over/under probabilities against the line. Edges live on day one of the regular season.
Passing Yards
QB rate model on YPA × expected attempts × opponent pass defense rating. Calibrated for weather (wind > 15 mph drops pass yards ~6%).
Rushing Yards
RB rate model on YPC × snap share × game script × opp run defense. Favored teams run more in the second half.
Receiving Yards
WR/TE target share × yards-per-target × coverage matchup (CB shadow flags reduce rate for WR1).
Anytime TD Scorer
Goal-line snap share + redzone usage + game-script Poisson. This is the softest market for soft books.
• Aug 28: Closed beta with the first 50 early-access users
• Sep 4 (Kickoff Week): Public launch · 3 markets live
• Oct 1: Anytime TD scorer added · Calibration v2
• Nov 1: Alt lines + season-long awards (MVP / OPOY)